Decision Analysis Essay Example for Free

Decision Analysis Essay In business today, many decision-making situations occur under conditions of uncertainty. The demand for a product can be one number this week and double that number next week or vice versa. There are several decision-making techniques to aid the decision maker in dealing with these types of uncertainties. There are two classes of decision situations, situations where probabilities can be assigned to future occurrences and probabilities that cannot be assigned. A decision-making situation includes several components, the decision itself and the actual events that can occur in the future, we refer to those as states of nature. The states of nature can be good and bad economic conditions, cold or warm weather, and an accident or no accident. The state of nature that does occur will determine the outcome of the decision, but the decision maker has no control over which state occurs. Payoff tables are organized so that the decision situations can be analyzed. Using a payoff table is a means of organizing a decision situation, including the payoffs from different decisions, given the various states of nature. Each decision will result in a specific outcome corresponding to the particular state of nature that occurs in the future. Payoffs are usually expressed as revenues or costs, but the can be expressed in a variety of values. Once a payoff table has been organized, there are several criteria available for making the actual decision. One of those is the maximax criterion. The maximax criterion results in the maximum of the maximum payoffs. The decision maker would be very optimistic. They would assume the most favorable state of nature would occur. When considering profit, the decision maker would pick the state of nature that gains the highest revenue. When considering cost, the decision maker would select the minimum of the minimum of costs, which is also referred to as the minimin criterion. The maximin criterion is another criteria that can be used. The maximin criterion results in the maximum of the minimum payoff. This is a pessimistic criterion. The decision maker assumes that the minimum payoff will occur. Of those minimum payoffs, the maximum is selected. If the decision maker were to consider costs instead of profits as the payoff, the conservative approach would to select the maximum cost for each decision. Then they would select the minimum of those costs. The minimax regret criterion minimizes the maximum regret. Regret is the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision payoffs. With this criterion, the decision maker attempts to avoid regret by selecting the decision alternative that minimizes the maximum regret. To use this criterion, the decision maker selects the maximum pay off under each state of nature and then subtracts the other payoffs from those amounts. The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criteria. The decision maker is not totally optimistic not totally pessimistic. With this criterion, the payoffs are weighted by a cofficient of optimism, which is a measure of the decision maker’s optimism. The coefficient of optimism must be determined by the decision maker, which is a limitation. It can be difficult for a decision maker to accurately determine his or her degree of optimism. This is a completely subjective decision making criterion. The equal likelihood criterion is done in the same way. The equal likelihood criterion multiplies the decision payoff for each state of nature by an equal weight. In conclusion, decision making analysis is a key component to maximizing profit and minimizing cost. There are several different decision-making criteria. Which criteria is used would be based on the decision makers outlook on the future.

Describe The Roles Of Government In The Present Business Environment :: essays research papers

Describe The Roles of Government In The Present Business Environment   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  In the present business environment governments have the power to change and make laws, having a major role and influence on the business environment. There are three levels of government; federal, state and local.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The federal government has power over such areas as; company law, income tax, trade etc. State government has power over pollution, price controls, state courts etc. and local government has power over rates, building approvals and zoning. Through zoning the local government can decide where businesses are located, or how many similar businesses should be built in a particular area. The power of the government can have direct or indirect influences on the business environment, encouraging or forcing businesses to comply. The federal government has the greatest effect over the macroeconomic business environment through the making of policies. The government has a number of economic objectives. They aim to have consistent economic growth, low rates of inflation, a sound international trading situation and low unemployment. To meet these objectives the government must place policies such as fiscal, monetary, trade and income policies.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Fiscal policy is the deliberate action of the government to change its levels of income and expenditure, through the annual budget. By budgeting for a deficit or surplus, the government will contract or expand the economy. e.g If the government needed to cut unemployment they would budget for a deficit so more money is injected and less money is taken from the economy by less taxes and higher expenditure raising employment.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Monetary policy can also raise the level of economic activity. It controls the availability of money by influencing the level of interest rates. Lowering interest rates encourages people to spend and borrow while higher interest rates encourages people to save and not borrow. By lowering interest rates the government encourages spending thus increasing the level of economic activity.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Income policies influence wage outcomes by negotiating with the unions and the employers and putting arguments before the industrial relations

Observation of Different Photons When Elements Are Heated (Chem Lab)

Observation of Different Photons when Elements are Heated Introduction: The bright line spectrum is the range of colorful lights that are emitted from an atom in its excited state. A â€Å"normal† atom, or an atom in its ground state, is when all of the atom’s electrons are in their proper energy level. When an atom is in its excited state, electrons jump to different energy levels making them unstable. As the electron tries to get back to its respective energy level, energy is emitted in the form of light (photons).Every element emits a different color that can be categorized into the bright line spectrum. Different elements give off different colors when heated because they all have different chemical properties, therefore, they will react differently under high temperatures. For example, [1] strontium, lithium carbonate, and strontium carbonate are often used in fireworks to create a red color. Calcium may be used to create orange, sodium for yellow, aluminum for whi te, barium chloride for green, copper for blue, strontium and copper for purple, and titanium for silver.Even though all elements give off unique colors when heated, it is impossible to identify all elements with the naked eye by doing this test because you have to know what color the element burns and sometimes the elements emit very similar colors. In this experiment, five known elements will be put under extreme heat to observe the color of the light emitted. Then, three unknown elements will be determined based upon the results of the known elements. Materials: 1. 2. Bunsen burner 3. Matches 4. Forceps 5. Wooden toothpicks 6. Sample of liquid calcium 7.Sample of liquid barium 8. Sample of liquid lithium 9. Sample of liquid sodium 10. Sample of liquid strontium 11. Three unknown liquid samples Procedure: 1. Turn on the gas for the Bunsen burner and light it with a match. 2. Using the forceps, take a toothpick and dip it into the calcium sample. Hold it in the sample for a few sec onds to make sure that the sample has soaked in. 3. Stick the toothpick into the flame from the side, still using the forceps. 4. Record the color seen. 5. Repeat steps 2-4 for the rest of the samples. 6. Turn the gas off. 7.When finished, compare the results of the known elements to the unknown elements to determine what they are; they will have the same color. [1]- http://chemistry. about. com/od/fireworkspyrotechnics/a/fireworkcolors. htm Results: Element Tested| Color it Burned| Determined to Be| Calcium| Orange| -| Barium| Yellow| -| Lithium| Red| -| Sodium| Yellow-Orange | -| Strontium| Darker Red | -| Unknown 1| Orange | Calcium| Unknown 2| Yellow| Barium| Unknown 3| Red| Lithium| Conclusion: In conclusion, the unknown elements were able to be determined because their emitted color matched those of calcium, barium, and lithium.This method for determining different elements in a controlled experiment, however, I don’t think this method would be effective for determining any unknown element. There are many elements and they may burn unique colors but often times, they are similar. For example, while performing this experiment, it was difficult to determine if unknown element1 was calcium or sodium because they both burned an orangey type color. It is possible that the toothpicks used in this lab got contaminated because someone may have touched them with their hands.If this is the case, then the elements may have burned a different color than they were supposed to. When performing this experiment, it was observed that the colors of the flames of each sample were different. This is because each element has a different chemical property. For the element that burned a similar color, this may be because they have similar, but different, chemical properties. This method of identifying elements in real life may be used when looking at fireworks. Fireworks are different elements set on fire; the different colors that are seen are the different elements re turning to their ground state.

Women Of The French Revolution - 1696 Words

Women participated in virtually every aspect of the French Revolution. Their participation almost always proved controversial, as women s status in the family, society, and politics had long been a subject of great debate. In the eighteenth century, women were destined to cater to their husbands and families, taking on domestic roles in the home rather than public, political ones. Despite this, women in the revolution demonstrated themselves as symbols of subversive brilliance, previously unprecedented in French society. Not only did they emerge themselves as equal and productive citizens, they changed the revolution by contributing so fiercely to the cause. Despite this, the revolution ended and women found themselves second-class citizens in France, suffocated by the patriarchal control of society following their huge contribution to the overthrow that changed the face of France. Women had no political rights in pre-Revolutionary France; they could not vote or hold any political office. They were considered passive citizens; forced to rely on men to determine what was best for them in the government. It was the men who defined these categories, and women who were forced to accept male domination in the political sphere. Although women s property rights and financial independence were met with many restrictions under French law and custom, most men and women believed that women belonged in the private sphere of the home and therefore had no role to play in publicShow MoreRelatedWomen in the French Revolution1101 Words   |  5 Pages9:45-11:10 Women in the French Revolution: The Ultimate Failure of Women’s Acquisition of Equal Rights The French Revolution has often been touted as the revolution that liberated individuals and gave triumph to traditionally oppressed groups. 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